Tag Archives: stocks

Stock Market Likely to Crash From Here

1 Mar

Triple Top?

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are both once again near all-time highs…for the third time.  The old saying third time’s a charm can work both ways when it comes to the stock market.  Sometimes an index will bust through to new highs, and other times it will fail spectacularly crashing to new lows.

We should all be watching the behavior of the major indexes here, because the possibility of a major triple-top failure is quite high, for reasons outlined below.

If the S&P 500 fails at the triple top and breaks down, from a charting perspective the next thing for it to do is revisit the bottom and then make up its mind as to what it wants to do next.  The implication here is that a major failure of the S&P 500 will open the possibility of it revisiting the 600-800 level, or some 45% to 60% lower from the 1,500 level where it currently churns.

It will take some time to get to that level, typically 3-6 months, unless there’s some sort of financial accident to hasten things along, in which case it could all be over in a month or two.

SP-500-triple-top Continue reading

Companies That Helped S&P 500 With Their Earnings

2 Feb

MSFT and JPM alone account for 50% of the rise.

Companies That Helped S&P 500 With Their Earnings

Source: zerohedge

Stock Market High Complacency, The Bear Will Decimate Your Wealth

26 Jan

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets have been surging in one heck of a January rally.  The combination of the fiscal-cliff tax deal and generally solid Q4 earnings have propelled stocks to their best levels in 5 years.  But these gains have been accompanied by stellar complacency.  Traders are extremely bullish, convincing themselves this rally is only beginning.  But high complacency near major highs really means serious downside risk. Continue reading

European Council ended in failure of negotiations on EU budget 2014-2020.

23 Nov

It is expected that the next European Council meeting on the budget for the period 2014-2020 is scheduled for early next year in January-February.

This failure had a possitive effect on risk trends such as S&P500, DJIA and also on XAU/USD.

Ten Reasons to Stay Bullish On Stocks.

22 Nov

1.You shouldn’t fight the Fed. We can argue about the proper role of the Federal Reserve or whether we ought to even have one. But history shows it doesn’t make sense to invest counter to the Central Bank when it is in an accommodative mode. And with the Fed buying up mortgage securities and long-term bonds to keep interest rates down, this is as accommodative as it gets.
2.Short-term interest rates are zero. Hyper-low rates make it cheaper for businesses to borrow and easier for consumers to spend. They also make stocks attractive relative to cash and short-term bonds.
3.Inflation is still M.I.A. Yes, I know, prices are up if you’re pumping gas, visiting a doctor, or putting a kid through college. But have you checked the price of a computer, a cell phone, or a flat-panel TV lately? Also, the biggest purchase most consumers ever make is a house – and those prices are definitely down.
4.Housing prices have finally stabilized. There are plenty of pending foreclosures still, but take a closer look. Nationally, the average discount on a foreclosure in September was only 8% below market value, according to an analysis by Zillow. And many foreclosure sales are creating multiple bids. Clearly, housing is in a healing mode.
5.Credit card debt is at a 10-year low. Still worried about overleveraged consumers? That’s so 2008. Debit card purchases are up. Visa and MasterCard balances are down. And American Express has seen loan balances fall 73% from the peak in early 2010.
6.The energy revolution is underway. Utilities, factories and truck manufacturers are switching from oil to much cheaper natural gas. Slower growth in emerging markets is lessening the demand for crude, too. And technology-driven advances in everything from fracking to oil-sands development are also positive factors.
7.Corporate balance sheets are pristine. The federal government is spending money like a sailor with four hours of shore leave. But it’s a very different situation with U.S. corporations. They have been paying down debt and refinancing it at lower levels. Plus, they are sitting on roughly $2 trillion in cash. Uncle Sam may be going broke. But U.S. blue chips are not.
8.Corporate profits are at record levels. U.S.-based multinationals like Caterpillar, General Electric and Apple have decoupled from the sluggish U.S. economy. They are capitalizing on exciting new markets in China, India, Brazil and Russia. That won’t change anytime soon.
9.Valuations are compelling, too. Historically, the S&P 500 has sold at 16 times trailing earnings. Today it sells for roughly 12 times earnings. There is plenty of value to be found in today’s market.
10.The Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect. Yes, the trend hasn’t been so friendly since the national elections. But the correction in the Nasdaq and the near-correction in the Dow may be setting us up for what is historically the best seasonal performance for the stock market: early December to mid-January. Investors and traders often regret sitting his period out.

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